Featured Advisory Board Member

Dr. Amanda K. Baumle is a Professor in the Department of Sociology at the University of Houston. Her research focuses on demography and sociology of law, with a particular focus on the demography of sexuality, trans demography, and LGBTQ individuals and the law. Her work has included examining economic outcomes, family relationships, migration patterns, and health outcomes for LGBTQ individuals. Dr. Baumle is the author and editor of six books, and the author of articles published in demography, sexuality, law, and general sociology outlets. Her research has been supported by grants from the National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Labor, and American Sociological Association. Her recent research has included examining sexual orientation and gender identity charges of discrimination filed with the EEOC, associations of violence victimization with health outcomes for sexual orientation and gender minorities, and predictors of fluidity in sexual identity among sexual minorities. Dr. Baumle was the guest editor of our Special Collection on Demography of Sexuality.

 

 

 

Featured Author

Ryan D. Talbert is an Assistant Professor of Sociology; faculty affiliate of the Africana Studies Institute and the Institute for Collaboration on Health, Intervention, and Policy at the University of Connecticut; and leads the Health Equity Lab. He specializes in health disparities, race and racism, and punishment and inequality. A primary goal of his work is to examine critically how extensions of white supremacy and systemic racism shape and maintain racial health disparities. A second line of research examines the social psychology of race and ethnicity with a focus on attitudes, discrimination, and identity, and a final line of inquiry analyzes the causes and consequences of contact with the criminal legal system. His scholarship has been published in journals such as the Journal of Marriage and Family, Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities, and Sociology Compass, and has been covered in outlets such as NBCBLK, ASA News, and The Sentencing Project.

Recent article in Population Review: Women’s Empowerment, Region of Residence, and Contraception among Women in India (co-authored with Megha Rana)

 

China’s Population Is Shrinking Second Year in a Row

 

Photo by <a href="https://unsplash.com/@yulokchan?utm_content=creditCopyText&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=unsplash">Joseph Chan</a> on <a href="https://unsplash.com/photos/green-palm-trees-with-umbrella-on-the-ground-uNHrmuZ6VKE?utm_content=creditCopyText&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=unsplash">Unsplash</a>

NPR, by Scott Detrow and Dr. Wang Feng– January 21, 2024

NPR’s Scott Detrow talks with Wang Feng, a professor of sociology at the University of California Irvine, about the consequences of China’s population decline.

TRANSCRIPT:

 

SCOTT DETROW, HOST:

The most populous nation in the world, China, is losing people. For the second year in a row, China’s population has declined. Birthrates reached a new low, and death rates were the highest they’d been in 50 years. According to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics, the total number of people in China dropped by over 2 million. And for some context, that is nearly the population of Houston, Texas. This shift has some people worried about the long-term health of the country and its economy. And to help us better understand these numbers, we are joined by Wang Feng, a professor of sociology at the University of California, Irvine. Thanks for joining the show.

 

WANG FENG: You’re welcome, Scott.

 

DETROW: So I know that you take a more optimistic view on this than many other observers. But before we get into that specifically, let’s just explain what’s going on here. What are some of the causes of China’s population decline?

 

FENG: Well, the accelerating decline is driven by three forces. The first is actually what we call a demographic echoing effect. That is, the smaller births we’ve been seeing in the last few years, a decade or so, is a reflection of the smaller birth cohorts of the parents’ generation.

 

DETROW: Yeah, there were fewer children being born due, in part, to the one-child policy and other factors. Now there are fewer adults having fewer children. It seems like it’s kind of the next step.

 

FENG: Exactly. So we have fewer adults reaching the childbearing age. But that’s not the – I think the most interesting part. The most interesting parts are the next two. One is that in the last three decades, young people – men and women, especially women – are postponing and leaving marriage. And then third factor in terms of low birth rate is even for those married women and men, they are choosing either not having children or staying with only one child. So combined you have this declining birth number year after year.

 

DETROW: Many major countries are looking at a similar dip in population over the coming decades. Is this trickier to figure out in China, though, a country of so many people and a country that has seen such explosive growth in so many different ways over the previous decades?

 

FENG: Well, it is different for China, I do think so, for a number of reasons. No. 1, it’s the economic growth model, how China has been able to achieve this spectacular economic growth in the last 40 years or so. And that, as noted by many, is driven largely by a young, productive and exploited labor force, mostly migrants from rural areas, and that source is depleting. So in terms of the economic growth model, where the growth comes from, this important source is weakening and – if not ending.

And No. 2 is the way that the Chinese political legitimacy is based (ph). And that is, the government has made the promise to support the large number of elderly and to be the new paternalistic redistributor. So people are expecting that, especially the large number of elderly or soon to be elderly, who are parents of the only children generation, and they are expecting that government to play important role in supporting the old age. And with economic slowing down, with the decline in government revenues – and this could pose a political challenge to the power holders in China if they could not deliver the promise that they once made.

 

DETROW: We mentioned there’s been a lot of concern about the negatives of a decline in population and that you have written that there’s a more optimistic way to look at it. Can you walk us through some of your reasons for optimism, what you think are some of the positives of this possible trend?

 

FENG: We are looking at the healthiest and the most educated generation in China, especially, I think, in this case, in China, things have happened so fast – the rapid expansion in higher education and the continued improvement in population health. So we are really not looking at the same population in China today as the population 40 years ago, let alone 80 years ago. So we have a different population to begin with. And also, we’re already seeing this with the new technologies and most recently with the hype around AI. A lot of the repetitive, unpleasant work in the past that have to be done by real human beings, and now can actually be done quite efficiently and inexpensively by the means of technology. And also, very importantly, we have to remember, we as a humanity – the whole world and in China certainly included – have produced so much. There’s so much wealth in the society, and we can do a lot with redistribution both across different income groups but also across generations. So we don’t need to continue to produce the – pursue GDP growth. We have produced so much, there’s enough to go around.

 

DETROW: That is Wang Feng, a professor of sociology at the University of California, Irvine. Thanks so much.

 

FENG: You’re most welcome.

 


India now most populous country in the world

United Nations –

24 April 2023 – China will soon cede its long-held status as the world’s most populous country. By the end of this month, India’s population is expected to reach 1,425,775,850 people, matching and then surpassing the population of mainland China. This forecast is based on the latest United Nations estimates and projections of the global population.

China’s population reached its peak size of 1.426 billion in 2022 and has started to fall. Projections indicate that the size of the Chinese population could drop below 1 billion before the end of the century. By contrast, India’s population is expected to continue growing for several decades.

Fertility is a key driver of population trends

In 1971, China and India had nearly identical levels of total fertility, with just under six births per woman over a lifetime. Fertility in China fell sharply to fewer than three births per woman by the end of the 1970s. For India, it took three and a half decades to experience the same fertility reduction that occurred in China over a seven-year period during the 1970s.

In 2022, China had one of the world’s lowest fertility rates (1.2 births per woman). India’s current fertility rate (2.0 births per woman) is just below the “replacement” threshold of 2.1, the level required for population stabilization in the long run in the absence of migration.

During the second half of the 20th century, both countries made concerted efforts to curb rapid population growth through policies that targeted fertility levels. These policies, together with investments in human capital and gender equality, contributed to China’s plummeting fertility rate in the 1970s and to the more gradual declines that followed in the 1980s and 1990s.

India also enacted policies to discourage the formation of large families and to slow population growth, including through its national family welfare programme beginning in the 1950s. India’s lower human capital investment and slower economic growth during the 1970s and 1980s contributed to a more gradual fertility decline than in China.

United Nations –

24 April 2023 – China will soon cede its long-held status as the world’s most populous country. By the end of this month, India’s population is expected to reach 1,425,775,850 people, matching and then surpassing the population of mainland China. This forecast is based on the latest United Nations estimates and projections of the global population.

China’s population reached its peak size of 1.426 billion in 2022 and has started to fall. Projections indicate that the size of the Chinese population could drop below 1 billion before the end of the century. By contrast, India’s population is expected to continue growing for several decades.

Fertility is a key driver of population trends

In 1971, China and India had nearly identical levels of total fertility, with just under six births per woman over a lifetime. Fertility in China fell sharply to fewer than three births per woman by the end of the 1970s. For India, it took three and a half decades to experience the same fertility reduction that occurred in China over a seven-year period during the 1970s.

In 2022, China had one of the world’s lowest fertility rates (1.2 births per woman). India’s current fertility rate (2.0 births per woman) is just below the “replacement” threshold of 2.1, the level required for population stabilization in the long run in the absence of migration.

During the second half of the 20th century, both countries made concerted efforts to curb rapid population growth through policies that targeted fertility levels. These policies, together with investments in human capital and gender equality, contributed to China’s plummeting fertility rate in the 1970s and to the more gradual declines that followed in the 1980s and 1990s.

India also enacted policies to discourage the formation of large families and to slow population growth, including through its national family welfare programme beginning in the 1950s. India’s lower human capital investment and slower economic growth during the 1970s and 1980s contributed to a more gradual fertility decline than in China.


PRB Releases 2022 World Population Data Sheet, Providing Comprehensive Look at COVID-19 Pandemic's Demographic Impacts in More Than 200 Countries

Pandemic impact

Photo by Isaac Quesada on Unsplash

PBS, b 

WASHINGTON, September 12, 2022—The COVID-19 pandemic caused nearly 15 million excess deaths in 2020 and 2021, accounting for 12% of all deaths globally and contributing to declines in life expectancy in some countries, including the United States.

 

Those are among the findings in PRB’s newly released 2022 World Population Data Sheet, providing a global picture of the pandemic’s impacts on mortality and fertility patterns.

 

Published annually since 1962, PRB’s World Population Data Sheet is a leading resource for policymakers, educators, and researchers seeking reliable demographic data. The 60th edition charts indicators for more than 200 countries and territories.

 

“Two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, we are finally getting a clearer and more nuanced picture of its impact across countries and communities,” PRB President and CEO Jeffrey Jordan said. “We hope the data and evidence in the 2022 World Population Data Sheet can provide greater insights for decisionmakers.”

 

Other key findings in the 2022 Data Sheet include:

 

♦ Between January 2020 and December 2021, the pandemic contributed to 12% of total deaths globally, directly or indirectly. Central America was hardest hit, with more than 25% of deaths associated with the pandemic.

 

♦  Around 7.46 million excess deaths occurred on average in both 2020 and 2021, leading to nearly 15 million excess deaths over the two-year period. Excess deaths measure the difference between the number of actual deaths and the number of deaths that would have been expected had the pandemic not occurred.

 

♦  Between 2019 and 2021, life expectancy in the United States declined from 78 years to 76 years—reversing 30 years of gains. Global life expectancy at birth is 75 years for women and 70 years for men.

 

♦  The global population rose slightly to just under 8 billion people. India is projected to have the greatest absolute increase in population size of any country between 2022 and 2050, rising by more than 253 million to 1.67 billion.

 

♦  The pandemic’s impact on fertility rates was less significant than expected and largely temporary. High-income countries such as Italy, Germany and the United States experienced small declines in births in 2020, rebounding in 2021. Low- and middle-income countries saw little to no fertility impacts.

 

♦  The global total fertility rate (TFR)—lifetime number of births per woman—is 2.3, still above the replacement-level TFR of approximately 2.1 births per woman.

 

“As more data and analysis become available, we are seeing how different populations were impacted unequally by the pandemic,” said Toshiko Kaneda, PRB’s Technical Director, Demographic Research. “Understanding how the pandemic’s impacts varied across groups is critical to prepare for future pandemics and crises.”

Click here to download a free copy of PRB’s 2022 World Population Data Sheet.

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